Farnsworth Lectures on the Politics of Not Voting

Professor of Political Science and Director of the University’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies, Stephen Farnsworth, recently presented an online lecture, “The Politics of Not Voting,” at the None of the Above Voter Mobilization Conference in Arlington, VA.

In addition, recent media mentions for Farnsworth include:

Second-wave Population Shifts Carry Vindman in Seventh (FXBG Advance)
Virginia’s sprawling Seventh Congressional District, which includes all or part of ten counties and the City of Fredericksburg, was one of the most sought-after congressional prizes nationally this year.
https://fxbgadvance.substack.com/p/second-wave-population-shifts-carry?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

Candidates line up for special elections to replace Virginia senators recently elected to US House (The Washington Post; US News and World Report; Virginia Lawyers Weekly; VPM)<
“It’s not impossible for the out party to win these districts, but a lot would have to go wrong for the dominant party to lose — a contentious nomination struggle, an extremely low turnout special election or a really energized out party,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “You would basically need a perfect storm followed by another perfect storm … Most of the time, perfect storms don’t happen.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/11/special-election-mcguire-subramanyam-virginia-senate/b7baba6c-a084-11ef-be87-1106a06524c6_story.html
https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/virginia/articles/2024-11-11/candidates-line-up-for-special-elections-to-replace-virginia-senators-recently-elected-to-us-house
https://valawyersweekly.com/2024/11/12/candidates-line-up-for-special-elections-to-replace-virginia-senators-recently-elected-to-us-house/
https://www.vpm.org/elections/2024-11-12/virginia-special-election-2024-senators-mcguire-subramanyam

2024 Election Recap: Virginia (DC News Now)
“Well, the polls all showed that this was going to be the state where the Democrats had the advantage,” said Stephen Farnsworth. https://www.dcnewsnow.com/news/capitol-review/2024-election-recap-on-capitol-review/<

Candidates line up for special elections to replace Virginia senators recently elected to US House (The Free Lance-Star; The Seattle Times; MSN; WTOP; ABC News)
“It’s not impossible for the out party to win these districts, but a lot would have to go wrong for the dominant party to lose — a contentious nomination struggle, an extremely low turnout special election or a really energized out party,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “You would basically need a perfect storm followed by another perfect storm … Most of the time, perfect storms don’t happen.”https://fredericksburg.com/news/state-and-regional/candidates-line-up-for-special-elections-to-replace-virginia-senators-recently-elected-to-us-house/article_cb7e188f-1c53-542e-ba4b-40ce3c4349ee.html
https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation/candidates-line-up-for-special-elections-to-replace-virginia-senators-recently-elected-to-us-house/
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/candidates-line-up-for-special-elections-to-replace-virginia-senators-recently-elected-to-us-house/ar-AA1tUfgr
https://wtop.com/virginia/2024/11/candidates-line-up-for-special-elections-to-replace-virginia-senators-recently-elected-to-us-house/
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/candidates-line-special-elections-replace-virginia-senators-recently-115753266

Trump’s agenda would mean profound change, from economy to federal workforce (Richmond Times-Dispatch)
“Donald Trump always pushed the political and legal systems as far as they could go,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/virginia-donald-trump-economy-port-immigration-nato/article_5025e9b4-9d17-11ef-b737-c79a5cd0e1c3.html

Pelosi Blames Biden for Election Loss (CTV News)
“Well, there is a painful reality here that to Donald Trump’s message resonated in this country and I think a number of Democrats are trying to figure out a way that they can avoid that painful message by blaming something internal,” said Stephen Farnsworth. https://www.ctvnews.ca/video/c3026981-nancy-pelosi-blames-biden-for-u-s–election-loss?playlistId=1.7095788

Virginia leaders react to Trump win as Harris keeps the commonwealth blue (Prince William Times)
“In Virginia and nationally, red areas became more red and blue areas became less blue nearly everywhere,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/virginia-leaders-react-to-trump-win-as-harris-keeps-the-commonwealth-blue/article_fc76f7a8-796b-5b69-a1da-898f2c487fc6.html

Press Rewind, Nov. 3-9 (Fredericksburg Free-Press)
“I think it’s clear that the legacy media doesn’t represent the greatest, most effective use of a candidate’s time right now. When you’re thinking about who you need to reach, people who are not reflexively going to vote for you or vote for the other candidate, you’re talking about people who are kind of casual consumers of news at best.” –Stephen Farnsworth, University of Mary Washington political science professor, in a podcast interview with Joey LoMonaco. https://www.fredericksburgfreepress.com/2024/11/10/nov-3-press-rewind/

The key election statistic: Many Democrats simply didn’t vote (Cardinal News)
Some laughed at the time when the University of Mary Washington poll in September that showed the presidential race in Virginia essentially tied. https://cardinalnews.org/2024/11/11/the-key-election-statistic-many-democrats-simply-didnt-vote/

Soon: Biden to Address the Nation (CTV News)
“Well, I think one of the things we can appreciate about Joe Biden is the extent to which he really does put the country first,” said Stephen Farnsworth. https://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=3025941

Fate of federal workforce unclear as Trump wins second term (AOL)
“What we’ll see in the short term is an answer to the question of exactly what is the plan that the Trump administration wants to put forward regarding federal workers,” said Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. https://www.aol.com/fate-federal-workforce-unclear-trump-023050666.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAI0YcSHnBdtDXQonVAQeOv3PtUmPtm6Y0YHNP1KwDMGCqm4Zmry1mWRjvtfqpR5YRqFzSno3PSZ317FRLVNshAz1wYU_0nhLEVCeIsCjYcYjAfRQBa2rqi6r1PeMZPZyTQyCR8D6KpmuZ7m1MaqMB81jBsbR82feBA3rERS_cMpE

Election 2024, The Night After (WTOP)
“I think one of the things to take away from this election is that the Republicans were able to do a bit better in the suburbs than they have in the past,” said Stephen Farnsworth.

Less suburban support narrows Harris’ Virginia margin (Richmond Times-Dispatch; Virginia Mercury)
“In Virginia and nationally, red areas became more red and blue areas became less blue nearly everywhere,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. https://richmond.com/news/local/government-politics/elections/donald-trump-kamala-harris-virginia-election/article_158addc4-9c7b-11ef-a958-27ca54b7de42.html https://virginiamercury.com/2024/11/06/virginia-leaders-react-to-trump-win-as-harris-keeps-the-commonwealth-blue/

Trump lost Virginia but gained ground in slightly less blue D.C. suburbs (The Washington Post)
Some of the credit for the purple blush should go to Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and his ability to connect with suburban voters, University of Mary Washington political analyst Stephen J. Farnsworth said. “The movement of suburban voters into the D column had really been accelerating before Youngkin’s victory [in 2021],” Farnsworth said, referring to the Republican’s narrow win in that year’s gubernatorial race. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/11/06/virginia-election-youngkin-trump-harris/

Virginia District 7 House seat goes to Democrat Yevgeny ‘Eugene’ Vindman: AP calls (Fox 5 DC)
“It is the sort of district where congressional majorities are won and lost,” University of Mary Washington political science professor Stephen Farnsworth said. “If you can’t win the outer-ring suburban counties of big cities in America, then you’re not going to be in the House majority.” https://www.fox5dc.com/news/virginia-district-7-house-seat-goes-democrat-yevgeny-eugene-vindman-ap-calls

Northern Virginia Trump supporters react to election win (WUSA 9)
“You really do see a scenario where a lot of people felt like they could take care of the abortion question I think on the referendum or legislative side and vote for Trump based on other matters of high importance to them,” Dr. Stephen Farnsworth of University Mary-Washington said. https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/virginia/trump-supporters-in-stafford-co-feel-election-victory-sparks-excitement-for-the-future/65-422d5133-ab0b-480b-93cd-ef9d53419922

Fate of federal workforce unclear as Trump wins second term (DC News Now)
“What we’ll see in the short term is an answer to the question of exactly what is the plan that the Trump administration wants to put forward regarding federal workers,” said Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, professor of political science and international affairs at the University of Mary Washington. https://www.dcnewsnow.com/news/local-news/washington-dc/fate-of-federal-workforce-unclear-as-trump-wins-second-term/

Maryland’s District 6 race remains deadlocked before remaining mail, provisional ballots (WJLA)
“The reality is that we are a 50/50 country, and there are going to be 50/50 districts,” explained Stephen Farnsworth, PhD, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. https://wjla.com/news/local/election-results-maryland-district-6-house-senate-republicans-democrats-early-voting-voters-congress-mcclain-delaney-provisional-ballots-november-5-dmv

Hot House Races to Watch on Election Night – And the Ads That Define Them (U.S. News & World Report)
Stephen J. Farnsworth, a University of Mary Washington political scientist, says that Vindman “has a huge cash advantage, but Anderson has been working hard throughout the fall in this sprawling district.” https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/2024-11-05/hot-house-races-to-watch-on-election-night-and-the-ads-that-define-them

Political expert weighs in on 2024 Presidential election (MSN)
“Well, I think it is really early to read too much into these numbers. And a lot will, of course, on which state we are talking about,” said Stephen Farnsworth. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/political-expert-weighs-in-on-2024-presidential-election/vi-AA1tzUaS

Harris wins Virginia but by lesser margin than Biden (MSN; Washington Examiner)
Two separate polls, one conducted by the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports and another from the University of Mary Washington, showed in the days leading up to the election that Trump had cut into Harris’s lead and was within striking distance. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/harris-wins-virginia-but-by-lesser-margin-than-biden/ar-AA1tAdLG https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3219261/harris-wins-virginia-lesser-margin-than-biden/

Economy, democracy most important to voters on election day (The Center Square)
An early September University of Mary Washington poll showed the same thing: that “threats to democracy” was the second-biggest concern for voters after the economy. https://www.thecentersquare.com/virginia/article_0ebfb0e0-9b82-11ef-bc70-47eb70fde189.html

Vindman claims victory in Virginia’s 7th Congressional district (WVTF)
“Vindman won this contest likely on the basis of offering a centrist democratic message that has worked for Spanberger in the past,” said Stephen Farnsworth. https://www.wvtf.org/news/2024-11-06/vindman-claims-victory-in-virginias-7th-congressional-district

Will Trump’s Joe Rogan Interview Help Win White House? Analysts’ Verdicts (Newsweek)
Dr. Stephen J. Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs-Professor of Political Science and International Affairs: Former President Trump’s Joe Rogan interview was an effective way to reach a group of potential voters that Republicans very much need to reach. The challenge for both campaigns throughout the fall has been to connect with voters who are not all that likely to participate and get them off the fence—and off the couch. If Trump wins, it will largely be as a result of his aggressive outreach efforts to younger male voters who can connect with Trump’s anger about the current state of the country. https://www.newsweek.com/will-trumps-joe-rogan-interview-help-win-white-house-analysts-verdicts-1978481

2024 is the first time some Hampton Roads elections are in November. Is it helping or hurting?
“For candidates for local office, it’s a much more challenging environment in which to be heard,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. For candidates, it may be harder to raise money and more expensive to run a campaign, Farnsworth said, because donors may opt to spend all their money on federal or state races. https://www.pilotonline.com/2024/11/03/2024-is-first-time-some-hampton-roads-elections-are-in-november-is-it-helping-or-hurting/

Sen. Tim Kaine responds to criticism over SNL appearance from opponent Hung Cao (WUSA 9; MSN; NBC 4)
“All indications are that Cao just simply was running at a bad time against an incumbent very well known in Virginia,” Dr. Stephen Farnsworth of University of Mary Washington said. https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/local/virginia/tim-kaine-responds-to-snl-appearance-criticism-from-republican-opponent/65-6dc5c906-50db-4892-b016-408319522f93 https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kaine-responds-to-snl-appearance-criticism-as-virginia-senate-candidates-make-final-push-before-election-day/ar-AA1tvpff https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/northern-virginia/video-of-confrontation-over-politics-demonstrates-how-many-americans-are-on-edge/3758296/

Billions flood into political betting market ahead of 2024 election (The Patriot Southwest Times)
Stephen Farnsworth is a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, and the director of its Center for Leadership and Media Studies. Betting markets should not be considered comparable to polls, as these markets can be prone to bias that is hard to detect, Farnsworth stated. https://pcpatriot.com/billions-flood-into-political-betting-market-ahead-of-2024-election/

Video of confrontation over politics demonstrates how many Americans are on edge (NBC)
University of Mary Washington professor Stephen Farnsworth said the confrontation isn’t surprising in this fraught political atmosphere. “What’s clear is that America is not in a happy place,” he said. “Half of the country is going to be furious once this election is resolved, and many people are already very, very upset in advance of Election Day.” https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/northern-virginia/video-of-confrontation-over-politics-demonstrates-how-many-americans-are-on-edge/3758296/?os=vbkn42tqhoPmKBEXtc&ref=app

Diehard Trump supporters question whether Virginia can turn red (MSN; The Gazette; Washington Examiner)
While Trump lost in Virginia in both 2016 and 2020, some GOP insiders in the state think victory remains within reach, pointing to two separate polls, one conducted by the conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports and another from the University of Mary Washington that show the former president is cutting into Vice President Kamala Harris’s lead, putting Trump within striking distance. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/diehard-trump-supporters-question-whether-virginia-can-turn-red/ar-AA1toFY9 https://gazette.com/news/wex/diehard-trump-supporters-question-whether-virginia-can-turn-red/article_0d3ab09a-4fe8-5b3c-a67a-0ee9490b29cf.html https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3214437/trump-supporters-doubt-virginia-can-turn-red/

The weekend that could change the election landscape (Richmond Times-Dispatch; The Daily Progress)
“Is it the best use of his time in the final days before the election? No, North Carolina or Michigan or Wisconsin or Arizona would be better uses of his time,” said Stephen Farnsworth, a political scientist at the University of Mary Washington. https://richmond.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/kamala-harris-donald-trump-salem-virginia-election-president/article_c85ca25e-97ba-11ef-be25-ebb7031e550f.html https://dailyprogress.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/elections/kamala-harris-donald-trump-salem-virginia-election-president/article_107695fa-e429-53cc-ada4-fdad081ed27a.html

Trump & Harris Head Into Final Swing State Blitz (CTV News)
“Well, I think what we’re going to see is what we’ve been seeing all along through this campaign,” said Stephen Farnsworth. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFoPFP26oTs

Podcast: Coffee shop talk with UMW’s Stephen Farnsworth (Fredericksburg Free Press)
It’s a Thursday morning in October — just about three weeks before election day — and Farnsworth’s schedule has precious few openings this time of year. Fortunately, I booked one of them to discuss, among other topics, his career pivot from journalist to political scientist, his special academic focus on the laughing matter of politics and, of course, the upcoming presidential election. https://www.fredericksburgfreepress.com/2024/11/04/podcast-coffee-shop-talk-with-umws-stephen-farnsworth/

Virginia faith group urges people to polls, calls for unity (WHRO; Chatham Star-Tribune)
Stephen Farnsworth is a political science professor and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at Mary Washington University. Candidates connect with voters in any way possible, but especially through religion because it is a substantial part of some voters’ lives, according to Farnsworth. https://www.whro.org/elections/2024-11-03/virginia-faith-group-urges-people-to-polls-calls-for-unity https://www.chathamstartribune.com/news/article_a02eaf78-9a1e-11ef-942b-6b6e1b6bb947.html

What is deficit spending, and should it matter to voters? (Chatham Star-Tribune)
Stephen Farnsworth is a political science professor and director of the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington. Recent Democratic presidents have seen smaller deficits than Republicans, according to Farnsworth. However, neither party tends to be fiscally responsible. Democrats favor expanding programs, while Republicans prefer tax cuts, and both achieve these goals by spending in the deficit, according to Farnsworth. https://www.chathamstartribune.com/news/article_6962ff20-9a2e-11ef-97cc-0b7952c69c15.html

What’s on the ballot in Virginia? 2024 election key races (Fox 5)
Stephen Farnsworth, a University of Mary Washington political science professor, said it’s Virginia’s most competitive race in 2024 and a bellwether for the U.S. House balance of power. “There’s a lot of national interest in the Virginia 7th, and it is the sort of district where congressional majorities are won and lost,” he said. “If you can’t win the outer-ring suburban counties of big cities in America, then you’re not going to be in the House majority.” https://www.fox5dc.com/news/whats-ballot-virginia-2024-election-key-races

Presidential closing arguments are in. What’s the verdict for DMV? (WJLA)
“This is an election, I think, where the real influence is how much you dislike the other side more than how much you like your own side,” said Steve Farnsworth, a political science professor at the University of Mary Washington. “I think that we’re living in a time when campaigns are much more effective at demonizing the opposition than making the case for one’s own side.” Farnsworth feels the candidates’ final speeches were more reenergizing for the Harris camp than for Trump’s team. https://www.wjla.com/news/local/presidential-elections-closing-arguments-vice-president-kamala-harris-former-president-donald-trump-white-house-virginia-maryland-dmv-voters-mary-washington-steve-farnsworth

ANALYSIS: What’s Wrong with Polling? (FXBG Advance)
In late September, a poll by the University of Mary Washington’s Center for Leadership and Media gave Harris only a two-point lead. https://fxbgadvance.substack.com/p/analysis-whats-wrong-with-polling